At some point during the NBA playoffs it's going to become clearly evident that your favorite team is not going to win the championship, unless that team happens to be the Los Angeles Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers, or Orlando Magic.
The NBA postseason is based on the premise that anything can happen, and every team has an equal opportunity to succeed in the course of a seven game series, but recent history has proved this theory to be false.
Since the beginning of the decade each NBA champion has shared one distinct quality which has been a common thread in their march to glory and that trait is a dominant perimeter player and a dominant post player.
The Lakers began the decade with Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant, and they were succeeded by San Antonio's Tim Duncan and either Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili, in addition to Detroit's tandem of Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace.
The Miami Heat continued the trend in 2006 with Dywane Wade and O'Neal, and each champion since then has followed a similar formula on their way to a NBA title.
Of course there are many other variables that factor in winning a championship, but broken down to it's barest molecule, the truth of the matter lies in that dominant, perimeter, post combination.
The Lakers, Cavaliers, and Magic are the only teams in the league who can boast of that type of championship combination, and their ability to dominate from the paint and the perimeter gives them an advantage heading into the postseason.
The defending champion Lakers' Pau Gasol and Bryant are the best two players at their respective positions going into the playoffs, and the proof of their success is in last season's championship.
Bryant is one of the greatest players of this past decade, but he needed a dominant figure like Gasol in the paint in order to continue his aspirations for legendary player status.
How dramatic was Gasol's impact on the Lakers? Los Angeles has been the best regular season team in the west for three consecutive years, and have played in the last two NBA Finals since Gasol was added.
The Cavaliers recognized the need to add athleticism after getting torched by the Magic's combination of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, but they also added O'Neal to counter Dwight Howard, and give them a dominant post presence.
With a player like LeBron James, Cleveland didn't need much in the paint, but they did need a defensive deterrent for players like Howard, and the ability to at least feign dominance in the paint is critical.
O'Neal is not the player he once was, but he can offer a glimpse of his former self in spurts, and even if he doesn't still have uncanny quickness, he is still physically imposing, much like Howard.
Howard and his Orlando Magic team carry the label of true contenders because of his own stature in the paint, and Vince Carter's play on the perimeter, which is streaky at times, but still has dominant qualities.
The Magic's basic principles lie in placing Howard in the post and surrounding him with players who can score from the perimeter, and Carter is the best of those players in terms of scoring in a variety of ways.
There are other teams who are mentioned as true title contenders, but of those teams, only the Boston Celtics have the same formula as the Lakers, Cavaliers, and Magic.
The only question about the Celtics is, can their aging perimeter-post threesome of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen hold together for another chance at postseason glory?
That remains to be seen, and other teams like the Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, and Atlanta Hawks have great players, but none of them are dominant in the paint and the perimeter.
Denver has two of the league's best players in Billups and Carmelo Anthony, but they don't have anyone who can take command of a game from the post. NeNe is great, but is he a player who can be counted on for a basket as the shot clock winds down?
That talent is imperative in the postseason because the game often becomes a half court battle of wills, where a premium is placed on working the ball in the post for easier shot attempts.
The Mavericks face the same dilemma, because even though Brendan Haywood has upgraded their defense, he is far from a primary option when a critical score is needed in a tight contest.
That designation usually rests with Jason Terry or Dirk Nowitzki, who both make their living on the perimeter, and if Shawn Marion is your best offensive option in the post, then you are probably at a disadvantage.
The Hawks actually fit into my theory also because they do have superior players on the perimeter in Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford, and Al Horford has developed into a fierce presence in the paint.
But Atlanta still has a tendency to play an undisciplined style of basketball, and as good as Horford is, I question his ability to hold his own against the likes of a player such as Howard.
This theory has been the rule since Michael Jordan decided to retire, and before he won his six titles, with a few exceptions, a dominant post-perimeter combination was the surest recipe for postseason success.
The postseason of 2010 looks to be a mirror image of each team which has won a championship in the past decade, and although fans will hold out hope, unless you live in California, Ohio, or Florida your chances will likely die under those principles.
