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Bank On It: Carter’s 100 Guarantees For The 2010 NFL Season

August 11th, 2010

I’ve been thinking a lot about these guarantees, and I have to say that I’m very confident in about 75 of them.

There are a few that came out of nowhere and I just threw in there just for kicks, but there about 60 to 70 of these that I promise you I will be right about.

I can’t wait to get all the comments and hate mail from you people. I seriously better be getting a bunch of comments too.



I GUARANTEE THIS...

1. The New York Jets will not make it to Super Bowl XLV.

2. The Buffalo Bills will not make the playoffs.

3. The New England Patriots will not finish the 2010 season lower than second place in the AFC East.

4. The Dolphins will get not more than nine wins this season.

5. The Cincinnati Bengals will make the playoffs this season.

6. The Baltimore Ravens will finish the season giving up the least amount of points out of any team in the AFC North Division.

7. The Pittsburgh Steelers will not make the playoffs.

8. The Cleveland Browns will finish the season with either four or five wins.

9. The Houston Texans will win the AFC South.

10. The Indianapolis Colts will still be fighting for a playoff berth over the final two weeks of the season.

11. The Jacksonville Jaguars will finish in last place in the AFC South.

12. The Tennessee Titans will be fighting to a playoff spot during the last two weeks of the regular season.

13. The San Diego Chargers will win the AFC West Division.

14. The Denver Broncos will not make the playoffs.

15. The Oakland Raiders will win no more than five games.

16. The Kansas City Chiefs be completely eliminated from playoff contention by the Week 13.

17. The Dallas Cowboys will make it to the NFC Championship Game.

18. The New York Giants will finish in third place in the NFC East Division and miss the playoffs.

19. The Philadelphia Eagles will finish in last place in the NFC East.

20. The Washington Redskins will finish in second in the NFC East and will make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

21. Lovie Smith will not be the Chicago Bears head coach by January 2011.

22. The Detroit Lions will win more than one game and still finish in last place in the NFC North.

23. The Green Bay Packers will win the NFC North.

24. If Brett Favre doesn’t play this season, the Minnesota Vikings will miss the playoffs.

25. The Atlanta Falcons will finish in the top two in the NFC South and will make the playoffs.

26. John Fox will not be the Panthers head coach by January 2011 if the Panthers do not make the playoffs.

27. The New Orleans Saints will make the playoffs.

28. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will finish the season with no more than five wins.

29. The Arizona Cardinals will not make the playoffs and will finish the season around .500.

30. The San Francisco 49ers will finish the season in the top seven in least total number of points against. 

31. The St. Louis Rams will win at least five games this season.

32. The Seattle Seahawks will win the NFC West division.

33. Sam Bradford will win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.

34. Brandon Marshall will be in the top five in receiving yards this season if he plays all 16 games.

35. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning will once again be in the top five in passing yards.

36. Chris Johnson will not finish as the NFL’s leading rusher, but will finish in the top five if he stays healthy throughout the year.

37. Adrian Peterson will finish as the NFL’s leading rusher if he plays all 16 games.

38. Wes Welker will finish in the top eight in receiving yards if he plays all 16 games.

39. Randy Moss will not finish in the top five in receiving yards or TD passes.

40. The New York Jets will finish in the top three in least points allowed this season.

41. Jared Allen will lead the NFC in sacks.

42. Terrell Owens will have more touchdown catches than Chad Ochocinco.

43. Patrick Willis will finish in the top three in tackles.

44. Tony Romo will finish the season with the highest completion percentage.

45. Sam Bradford will have more touchdown passes than Josh Freeman.

46. Garrett Hartley and David Buehler will both be in the top five in total number of points scored by kickers.

47. Ray Rice will score at least 10 rushing touchdowns AND will be in the top five in rushing yards.

48. Ryan Grant will finish in the top eight in rushing yards.

49. Michael Turner will finish in the top ten in rushing yards.

50. Felix Jones will have more rushing yards than Marion Barber.

51. LaDainian Tomlinson will have at least six combined touchdowns this season.

52. Justin Forsett will be at least a 900-yard rusher.

53. Matt Hasselbeck will have more than 17 touchdown passes and less than 17 interceptions.

54. C.J. Spiller will not lead the NFL in total return yards.

55. Patrick Crayton will have at least three return touchdowns this season.

56. DeSean Jackson will lead the NFL in punt return yards.

57. Michael Clayton will be the Buccaneers’ leading receiver.

58. The Giants’ Steve Smith will have more receiving yards and touchdowns than the Panthers’ Steve Smith.

59. Tim Tebow will score at least two rushing touchdowns this season.

60. Antonio Gates will lead all tight ends in receiving yards.

61. Either Brent Celek or Visanthe Shiancoe will lead all NFC tight ends in touchdown receptions.

62. Donovan McNabb will have more passing yards, a higher completion percentage, higher QB rating, and more touchdown passes than Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick combined.

63. One of the 32 starting quarterbacks to start in Week One will go down with a season-ending injury within the first three weeks of the season.

64. DeMarcus Ware will finish in the top three in sacks.

65. The Buffalo Bills will not lead the NFL in sacks allowed.

66. Brandon Jones will have the second-most receiving yards for the 49ers.

67. Matt Moore will not be the Panthers’ starting quarterback by December.

68. Jairus Byrd will not lead the Bills in interceptions.

69. Darrelle Revis will play at least half of the season for the New York Jets.

70. Bobby Engram will lead the Browns in receiving yards.

71. Andre Davis will be the second-leading receiver for the Texans.

72. Arian Foster will not be the Texans leading rusher.

73. Pete Carroll will win the NFL Coach of the Year Award.

74. No running back will reach the 1,800 yard mark this season.

75. Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing attempts.

76. Drew Brees will lead the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes.

77. Josh Freeman will lead the NFL in interceptions thrown.

78. Mark Sanchez will lead the AFC in interceptions.

79. Reggie Wayne will have at least 96 receptions this season.

80. Peyton Manning will not win the MVP Award.

81. Terrell Owens will not cause a locker room disturbance this season.

82. Dallas Clark will lead all tight ends in receptions and touchdowns.

83. Garrett Hartley will make the Pro Bowl.

84. Jason Campbell will throw for more than 3,000 yards this season but will also throw less than 20 touchdown passes.

85. If Brett Favre doesn’t play this season, Tarvaris Jackson will throw more than 15 touchdown passes.

86. Vince Young will have at least 20 total touchdowns this season.

87. Chris Wells will not finish in the top 10 in rushing yards.

88. Clinton Portis will not finish in the top 20 in rushing yards.

89. Cadillac Williams will not finish in the top 30 in rushing yards.

90. DeSean Jackson will not finish in the top 10 in receiving yards.

91. Dwayne Bowe will not finish in the top 20 in receiving yards.

92. Steve Breaston will not finish in the top 30 in receiving yards.

93. David Harris will be the Jets leading tackler and will finish in the league’s top ten in total tackles.

94. The AFC’s leader in sacks will be a Pittsburgh Steeler.

95. Aaron Schobel will be on a team by October.

96. Julius Peppers will record at least eight sacks this season.

97. The NFL’s interception leader will either be Asante Samuel, Darren Sharper, Charles Woodson, Nick Collins, Johnathan Joseph, Leon Hall, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or Sheldon Brown.

98. The AFC Champions will either be the Bengals, Ravens or Chargers.

99. The NFC Champions will either be the Cowboys, Packers, or Seahawks.

100. Super Bowl XLV will be decided on a field goal in the final 30 seconds of the game.

And you can take pretty much all of these to the bank.

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Posted in NFL, Opinion, Preview/Prediction, Super Bowl

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Six Super Sophomores That Can Win The Heisman Trophy In 2010

August 11th, 2010

Until 2007, a sophomore had never won the most prestigious trophy in college football, the Heisman Trophy.

That year, former Florida QB Tim Tebow became the first sophomore to win the Heisman in his first full season as a starter.

Since then, sophomores Sam Bradford of Oklahoma and Alabama's Mark Ingram won Heisman Trophies in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

Heading into 2010, there doesn't seem to be a clear favorite for the Heisman, which lately seems like a two-year campaign to win the trophy.

There are a decent crop of sophomores who played well last season that could be hearing their names called at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York City.

Here are the top six that are very capable of winning the Heisman Trophy in 2010.

Begin Slideshow



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Posted in Andrew Luck, Big 12 Football, Big East Football, College Football, Dion Lewis, Matt Barkley, NCAA, Oklahoma Sooners Football, Pac-10 Football, Pitt Football, Rankings/List, Stanford Football, USC Football, heisman trophy, landry jones

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Ndamukong Suh (Not Bradford) Is the Most Overpaid Player in the NFL!

August 11th, 2010

Ndamukong Suh, the number two pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, recently signed a five-year, $68 million dollar contract with $40 million guaranteed. That is more money per year than the contract of the number one pick QB Sam Bradford signed.

  • Suh's contract is for $13.6 million a year (8 million a year guaranteed)
  • Bradford's contract is for $13 million a year (8.3 million a year guaranteed)

For the No. 2 player to get a shorter deal (usually rookies want a shorter deal so they can have the freedom to become a free agent sooner) with more money per year than the No. 1 pick is odd. Add to that the fact that Suh's position is much less valuable than Bradford's position, and it has you wondering why so many cried out that Bradford was "overpaid," while most seem to agree Suh got paid appropriately.

Suh played on a defense which Sam Bradford's team ripped for 62 points.

Would you like Bradford's stat line against the "all-powerful" Suh? He went 19 for 27 for 311 yards 5 TDs 1 INT and ZERO SACKS. He was hardly even pressured at all.

The commentators brought up the fact that Bradford was able to stand and wait in the pocket throughout the game (usually he would roll out often, but didn't need to against Suh). Suh did little to nothing to disrupt the pocket or pressure Bradford.

Most articles stating that Bradford is overpaid are based on personal opinion of Bradford's draft value, not on his NFL performance. No rookies have any NFL experience, and that includes Suh. It is commonly assumed he will be an elite DT, but we won't know for sure until he actually plays.

All rookies are overpaid. None of them have done anything in the NFL. Bradford is no more overpaid than Suh is.

Thus far, Bradford is performing very well in camp. He is more promising than Suh based on the fact that he plays, by far, the most important position in football: Quarterback.

How many defensive tackles have "led their teams to Super Bowls?" Do I need to answer that one? Defensive tackles add significant value to a team's defense, but cannot possibly add as much value as a quarterback. A "great" DT adds less value to a team than a "good" QB:

  • Bad teams with very good DTs: Bears, Bills, Jaguars, Redskins, Raiders, Browns
  • Bad teams with very good QBs: none

(Some may consider Jay Cutler very good, but he hasn't played consistently. Jason Campbell and David Garrard were the best QBs on bad teams.)

The defensive tackle isn't even the "QB of the defense." In the NFL, defensive tackles rarely make enough of a difference to drastically change the outcome of a game.

Quarterbacks, meanwhile, are the face of the team. They help draw in top free agents and bring in lots of cash to the organization. The quarterback is really a player-coach. He often calls his own plays and receives the criticism or blame for failures or successes of a team.

Sam Bradford could be the first long-term QB the Rams have acquired since moving to St Louis (Warner was great, but not was not long-term solution due to his mid-career struggles).

Franchises need great quarterbacks to earn sustained success, thus the term "franchise quarterback." I have never heard the term "franchise defensive tackle". 

If you want to see an example of the value of a QB, look at Peyton Manning.

He was drafted by the "worst team in the NFL" in 1998 and he helped the Colts almost immediately turn into one of the best franchises in the NFL. He has had 10 winning seasons in 12 years. He has gone 89-23 (74.5%) since 2003. He was worth every penny of his rookie contract if not more.

Peyton was a very rare case, but it is an example of the "reward side" of drafting a quarterback No. 1 overall and paying so much money. Everyone talks about the risks (There are far too many to fathom: he could break an arm, get in a car crash, or even be bitten by a poisonous snake), but the potential rewards are monumental.

Most of the time the teams who draft a QB first overall do so because they are desperate for a good player at the most important position, not because that person deserves to be drafted so high. Yes, the Rams were desperate for a franchise "savior," but the coaching staff was unanimous in the decision to draft Bradford.

Countless analysts confirmed the value of Bradford's draft stock. Bradford would have been drafted No. 1 in 2009, so it wasn't like they were going on a limb. Plus, Bradford's physique improved drastically in a year. Physically, he looks like an NFL QB now.

Bradford will develop. It should be more of a matter of surrounding him with good offensive talent, which will be the hard part for the Rams. But based on his work ethic (which is comparable to Peyton's work ethic), Bradford should adjust to the NFL within a couple of years.

There is every reason to believe Sam Bradford will be a very good NFL quarterback. Only if he fails to do so can we say he is more overpaid than Ndamukong Suh (that is of course assuming Suh doesn't end up a bust).

Unless it is Bradford that proves to be the bust, Suh is the most overpaid player in the NFL.

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Posted in NFL, Opinion, Sam Bradford, ndamukong suh

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Alabama Crimson Tide Will Win SEC Championship Again, Says Handicapper

August 11th, 2010

Even with Tim Tebow—whom many people call the greatest college football player ever—gone from the SEC, it will still probably be the most watched conference in the nation among sports betting fans. It still houses the defending national champion plus some storied programs that always seem to field contending teams. Let’s have a look at the top picks.

 

ALABAMA (1 to 1)

The theme of 2009 college football betting was saying goodbye to legends. Tebow, Colt McCoy, and Sam Bradford all are NFL bound now. But guess what? The defending national champs haven’t said goodbye to any of their key offensive pieces.

Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram returns to smash people in the running game. He has a nice complementary back in sophomore Trent Richardson. Greg McElroy may be more of a game manager than star quarterback, but who cares? He does the job well. And he has an elite target in Julio Jones when ’Bama wants to air it out.

While Alabama doesn’t return as many defensive starters, some of its younger guys are ready to step up and fill the void. A repeat national title is very possible, and an SEC title is almost a lock if you ask me.

 

ARKANSAS (8 to 1)

As Ryan Mallett goes, Arkansas will go. There’s no denying that Mallett is a beast. He topped 3,600 passing yards last year and threw 30 touchdown passes versus only seven picks. But I’m not crazy about Arkansas’ D. It forces lots of turnovers but was 99th in points allowed last season.

 

AUBURN (8 to 1)

I’m not sure why any sports betting expert podcasts could get overly excited about Auburn this year. Even if the conference’s worst scoring defense from a year ago improves, it has a long way to go to stop the elite teams. And Auburn’s offense is nothing special despite its strong offensive line.

 

FLORIDA (5 to 2)

Before you Florida fans fling yourself from the bandwagon and grieve Tebow, remember that your team still has one of college football’s top programs. Four of five offensive linemen are back and will give new pivot John Brantley plenty of time to make throws. Their speedy defense will also give plenty of teams trouble. Don’t count out Urban Meyer’s boys just yet.

 

GEORGIA (8 to 1)

If Aaron Murray is the real deal at quarterback, Georgia’s offense could make some noise in the SEC. After all, it has a budding superstar wideout in A.J. Green and an experienced line.

The defense remains inexperienced but the hope is that coaching, not personnel, will cause the biggest improvement for the Bulldogs. The problem is that Todd Grantham (imported from the Dallas Cowboys) will convert the defensive scheme to a 3-4, and growing pains always come when a defense makes that switch.

 

LSU (10 to 1)

The LSU Tigers offer decent value at 10 to 1. I think they’ll have one of the best defenses in the conference this year. They have skill at every position, especially the quick defensive line. On offense, Jordan Jefferson will have to be better but only two starters return to his line. I’m not convinced LSU will score enough to win the SEC.

ScoresOddsPicks.com picks: On one hand, every team listed above has chance for a good season. On the other, I still see the SEC as Alabama and the rest. Why downgrade the national champs when their stars are back for more?

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Posted in College Football, Preview/Prediction

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NFL Two-a-Days: St. Louis Rams Season Preview

August 10th, 2010

1. How soon will we see Sam Bradford?

They brought in A.J. Feeley this off season, but he's never been a starter himself. With Bradford's history of shoulder injuries, they might want to make sure the offensive line can hold up. I think we'll see him Week Five in Detroit.

2. Is Steven Jackson still one of the NFL's elite backs?

He has been a horse for this offense for a number of years. He really was the only bright spot on this offense last season. The Rams might want to think about pairing him with a back. He can still be very productive but he needs help around him.

3. Who is the Rams best playmaker on defense?

James Laurinaitus was the team's leading tackler and best linebacker. The defensive line needs help as does the secondary. I do like O.J. Atogwe; he is the playmaker of the secondary. Not a tough enough question, but James Laurinaites.

4. Will the Rams win a game in 2010?

Yes, this question could be used far better than this.

5. Record? 

5-11, last in NFC West.

This idea originated from ESPN's Mike & Mike. To listen to their opinion on the Rams click here. Later today, I'll preview the Washington Redskins.

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Posted in NFL, Preview/Prediction, st louis rams

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