Posts Tagged ‘Marlins’
Paulino, Johnson push Marlins by Rockies (AP)
July 23rd, 2010The Giants-Dodgers Rivalry: A Statistical Analysis
July 23rd, 2010
Rivalries have always played a huge role in sports, and we all know the fun in rooting against a team we hate.
In the past, rivals have been compared in a number of ways, from who has the best current team to who has won the most championships to who has the best fans.
We at SeatGeek thought it would be interesting to compare rivals based on transactions on the secondary ticket market, which we have found to be a great judge of fan sentiment .
Three weeks ago, we looked at the Mets-Phillies rivalry . Today, we will be looking at the rivalry between the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers .
The first graph shows the average transaction price per month for February through July. The ticket price data is based on the date transacted, not which game the tickets are for, meaning that if a ticket is bought in February for a game in July, the data is part of February’s average.
- Average Giants ticket prices are greater than or equal to Dodgers ticket prices every month.
- July is a very interesting month for the Dodgers. We are not completely sure what was the cause of such an extreme drop. During July, the Dodgers are 6-8 and are currently 5.5 games out of first place, which might have caused fan sentiment to fall and with that, ticket prices.
- Though this data is based on the transaction date and not the game date, about 40 percent of secondary market tickets for a game are usually bought with a week of the event, and over half are usually bought within two weeks. The fact that our data for July only includes data through July 19th, and so far this month the only teams the Dodgers have played at home are the Cubs and the Marlins (two below .500 teams), could also explain the significant drop in average ticket price.
- Please comment below with any other ideas you might have regarding the significant drop in Dodgers ticket prices in July.
We also thought it would be interesting to track the ticket price changes as a percentage change over time—with February as our base month.
This allows us to compare consumer sentiment fluctuations across different teams on the same scale. For a more simple example, lets look at two teams: Team A and Team B.
In February, Team A’s tickets are $5, and Team B’s tickets are $30. In June Team A's tickets are $10, and Team B’s tickets are $20. That means Team A experienced a 100 percent increase in ticket prices, and Team B experienced a 33.3 percent decrease in ticket prices.
Therefore:
- Giants tickets purchased in July are 19 percent below the price of tickets transacted in February.
- Dodgers tickets purchased in July are 49 percent below the price of tickets transacted in February.
- Up until July, Giants and Dodgers tickets follow an remarkably similar pattern. Prior to July, both teams’ changes in average ticket prices tracked within a 5 percent range of each other.
We will keep you updated. We plan on updating these plots monthly in addition to looking at other rivalries. Stay tuned.
Be sure to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeekMLB , and email [email protected] with any questions or comments.
This article is also featured on SeatGeek Sports Blog
New York Yankees Trade Rumors: Price for Cody Ross Too High
July 21st, 2010The Yankees have had scouts watching the Marlins lately as the two teams have discussed a couple of players, but OF Cody Ross is one name that keeps coming up in the papers.
According to George King and Mark Hale of the NY Post, the Yankees and Marlins are not anywhere near a deal yet because the asking price for Ross is too high. The Post hasn’t said what the Marlins have asked the Yankees for, but they did report that they have asked the Braves for former Yankee LHP Mike Dunn in a deal.
Ross, 29, is in the fifth full season of his career, is an outfielder who can play all three positions, and is earning $4.5 million this year. That last part is why the Marlins are likely to deal him. He’s the fourth highest paid player on their team and is arbitration eligible after this season, which will only make him more expensive.
So maybe the Marlins are asking a lot for Ross now, but it is likely that the asking price will come down, at least slightly. It might not drop to a level the Yankees are comfortable with, but it is Brian Cashman’s style to monitor the situation until he is moved.
Ross would be perfect for the Yankees as a right handed platoon with outfielder Curtis Granderson. Ross has a career OPS-plus of just 106, not terrible, but that number jumps to 136 against lefties. Meanwhile the Yankees fears about Granderson hitting lefties has been all too real. Granderson’s OPS-plus against southpaws is a lowly 65.
Related Stories
July 18, 2020: Yankees Trade Rumors: Discussing Ross, Nunez, Helms with Marlins (0)
MLB Closer Carousel’s Fantasy Baseball Impact: National League Report
July 21st, 2010Some fantasy baseball owners are in need of a few points in their roto league, trying to lock up one stat a week in their head to head or even looking to retool for next year.
Whatever your situation is, this will give you the low down on every National League teams closer situation.
Brewers —Raise your hand if you predicted that John Axford would be leading the Brewers in saves this year...
That's what I thought. Trevor Hoffman may be the all-time leader in saves, but the hot hand is Axford, and he's rewarded anyone that took a shot with him early enough.
At 50 percent owned in Y! leagues, there may be a chance he's available in your league. If so, pick him up.
Axford has closed 10 games without a blown save and owns a 5-1 record to go along with a 32 Ks in 26 IP. His ERA and WHIP statistics stand at a very respectable 3.12 and 1.27 respectively, so it doesn't appear that he's going to slow down any time soon.
Phillies— Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.
Injuries have been the storyline in Philadelphia this year, but they're starting to get healthy. But because of the health issues, there have been five pitchers to record a save for the Phillies this year.
Brad Lidge leads the way with seven and Ryan Madson has four saves to his credit. Combined, those two have only seen action in 32 games so far due to injury.
But even with the limited action this year, the two closers in Philadelphia have combined for six blown saves. Although they've been ineffective at times, there will be plenty of opportunities for the rest of the season.
If you want to take a shot at some saves and can sacrifice ERA, take a look at Lidge and Madson, who are 57 percent owned and 21 percent owned respectively in Y! Leagues.
Nationals— With the trade deadline looming, the Nationals find themselves 13 games out of first place. Their closer, Matt Capps, figures to be a target of many teams looking to add bullpen depth.
If Capps is traded, he will end up being someone's setup man and lose most of his Fantasy relevance.
After a trade, expect the Nationals to continue grooming their closer of the future, Drew Storen. Last years No. 10 pick, Storen blew through the minor leagues quicker than his first round counter part Steven Strasburg. Only owned in five percent of Y! leagues, Storen could stand to see a fair share of save opportunities before the year is out.
Diamondbacks— The bullpen in Arizona has been pretty bad this year considering that their opening day closer has an ERA north of eight and the only pitcher with a WHIP below 1.29 is a kid they picked up in a trade recently.
Chad Qualls (48 percent owned) was the closer for most of the season, but the new management team in Arizona will probably go in a different direction, and today it appears that Juan Gutierrez (two percent owned) is the latest to get a chance at the end of games.
So far so good, as Gutierrez has earned two saves as of late. But his high ERA (6.96) and 1.515 WHIP suggest he'll struggle just like those that have come before him.
Sam Demel (one percent owned) is the one bright spot with the 1.154 WHIP, but it doesn't appear that the Diamondbacks will be offering up enough chances anyway, and we should probably stay away from any member of the D’backs bullpen.
Trade Bait... the next six guys are known to be good closers and should be your trade targets if you're looking to trade for saves.
Rockies— Watch out now, but the Rockies have another chance to get hot and roll through the NL West.
For the end of their games, they're very committed to Huston Street, as they should. He's already closed out six saves since returning from the disabled list in June.
While Street was on the shelf, most saves went to Manny Corpas and a few went to Franklin Morales. But that's all in the past now.
With 135 career saves at 26 years of age, Street is a fantastic option in all formats with career stats of 1.023 WHIP, 2.89 ERA, and a strike out per inning.
Dodgers— Jonathan Broxton may be the best closer in the National League, but strangely, the Dodgers have only presented Broxton with just 21 save chances.
Broxton has saved 19 of these chances and posted 55 Ks, a 2.11 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP in 39.2 IP. The 26-year-old righty got off to a slow start this year, but it was due to a lack of opportunities, not a lack of production.
The Dodgers are still in the NL West mix and should offer plenty of save chances through the end of the season, making Broxton a must own. If you're looking to trade for saves, consider his lack of chances so far this year as a chip for buying low.
Reds— Francisco Cordero is tied for the league lead in saves with 25, even though he's performing well off of his career statistics.
The slightly elevated numbers (4.10 ERA compared to a career 3.24 and 1.549 WHIP compared to 1.368) could just be a bump in the road, and an excellent second half would bring him right back to his career line.
With the Reds leading the NL Central, they have banked on Cordero at the end of their games. Going forward there are zero signs of a change; the Reds will live and die by Cordero in their tight games.
Padres— Everyone was very confident that Heath Bell would be one of the league leaders in saves, but most thought that by this time it would be for a contender loading up their bullpen.
Instead, he's closing out games for the NL West leading Padres.
The 32-year old Bell is having a spectacular year and is owned in every format, but if you're trading for saves, this is the guy to turn to.
Marlins— When Matt Lindstrom went on the DL in June of the 2009 season, the Marlins turned to 25-year-old.
The former Royalhas saved 46 games while blowing 12 in just over a year of service. He is showing improved WHIP and ERA statistics this year and is on pace to set a career-high in strikeouts.
Even if there were someone else performing for the Marlins, there are no reasons to think that they would look anywhere else at the end of games. Under team control through the 2012 season, expect the Marlins to focus on other parts of their team and allow Nunez to continue closing games out.
Astros— So much for the drama many anticipated taking place in the Astros bullpen this season.
This spring it was uncertain if Matt Lindstrom would hold onto the closer's role all year, but he has turned it up and closed out 22 of his 26 save chances.
For someone that throws in the triple digits, Lindstrom hasn't provided the K rate you might expect with 31 Ks in 36 IP. Plus his WHIP is high at 1.486. But he's getting saves, and that's what we're looking for.
Looking at next year....
Braves— There are some special things going on in Atlanta.
The division leaders at the All-Star Break will most likely have to part ways with their closer, manager, and maybe even their captain next year. Currently, though, Billy Wagner, is having a career year at the age of 38, with five wins to zero losses, 21 saves, and 59 strikeouts in 39 innings.
Setting up Wagner has been a mix of Takashi Saito and the 25-year old Jonny Venters. Venters has some upside and could expect to close games out for the Braves in 2011.
Cubs— It's amazing to think that Carlos Marmol has not locked down the closer role for the Cubs when you consider that he's averaging a ridiculous 17 K/9. But that is the case, and it is because of outings like this past Saturday, where Marmol walked five, gave up one hit, and allowed four runners to score in a one-run game.
Marmol has only blown four saves this year, but the fact that he has given up more walks (33) than hits (24) shows that there is reason for concern in Chicago.
Lying in waiting behind Marmol is the closer of the future in Andrew Cashner. But he needs more time in the big leagues and is still a long ways from being ready to close big league games.
Consider Marmol to have his job on lockdown for the remainder of the year, but going into next year that may not be the case.
Giants— The Giants made Brian Wilson their full time closer in 2008 and haven't had to look back since.
Wilson is tied for the league lead in saves this year and could approach 50 saves by season's end. But rumors have spread this past offseason about the Giants moving Wilson eventually, because of his contract. It's still not clear who will inherit the job.
The younger guys in the bullpen, Sergio Romo and Dan Runzler, have been impressive, but not enough to predict a successor.
Pirates— The Pirates may only have 30 wins to date, but they have offered up 20 saves.
Free agent pick up Octavio Dotel has been able to lock up 19 of those 20 games. But the most interesting story from the Pirates bullpen this year has been the emergence of 27-year-old Evan Meek.
A former Rule 5 draftee, Meek has put up a 1.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 48Ks in 50.2 IP, good enough to earn himself a spot in the All-Star game. If the Pirates were to trade Dotel, Meek should be next in line, but he'll need to calm the butterflies down before becoming very relevant in our Fantasy world.
Meek has blown five saves in six chances, but has still maintained the impressive statistics.
It would appear that Meek has had a difficult time getting outs when inheriting runners. Luckily the closer role doesn't require him to do that often.
But wait, there is more....
Mets— The Mets have invested heavily in Francisco Rodriguez, and he has returned that investment with 21 saves for them this year.
At 28, Rodriguez has posted a 2.68 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through 47 IP this year. This high number has put K-Rod on pace for his most innings since becoming a full-time closer.
Beyond K-Rod, no one holds a very significant role in the bullpen. Elmer Dessens and Bobby Parnell have been effective as of late and could lock up a bigger role if they continue to get outs.
Cardinals— Throw out an epic loss at Colorado on July 6th and Ryan Franklin has a 2.11 ERA and a WHIP under one through 34.1 IP. Outside of this one historic appearance, Franklin has been extremely dependable, with 16 saves in 17 chances.
When Franklin has been unavailable, the Cards have turned to Jason Motte on three occasions, of which he's closed out two (the blown save came the night after the Rockies 12-9 victory over the Cards).
Franklin's age, 37, could be a concern for owners carrying him into next year, but for 2010, he continues to be a spectacular option.
Written by James Weston for thefantasyfix.com
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Behind The Mound: Is Ubaldo Jimenez Struggling?
July 21st, 2010As the second half of the 2010 MLB season begins, Ubaldo Jimenez remains a major story. He has a 15-1 record, had an ERA under 1.00 at the end of May, and was pretty much handed the Cy Young Award, and even the MVP Award, by some.
Yet despite this, and despite people still considering him the best pitcher in the league, he has not pitched well of late. His stats were so good to begin with that his recent struggles have fallen under the radar.
You may be thinking, "How can you possibly be saying Ubaldo is pitching bad? He has 15 wins and a 2.38 ERA. Anybody would want those stats." You are right, those are very impressive numbers, but if you look at the whole picture, then you see trouble in Rockies paradise.
In his last eight starts, he has the following stat line: 4.85 ERA, 23 BB, 48 K, 52 IP, and in spite of these rather average stats, a 5-0 record. The match-ups against the Giants and Marlins should have been losses, but the Rockies scored eight runs to cancel out Jimenez's seven and six earned runs, respectively.
A 4.85 ERA is not terrible, but it's a far cry from the dominant Ubaldo we saw in the first two months. Still, here are three stats that actually concern me:
First, he is fifth in the National League with 49 walks. Yes, he allows very few hits, but allowing that many walks is not any better.
Second, in three no-decisions, he has an ERA of 9.00. In other words, those three no decisions could have just as easily been losses, and while a 15-4 record is still impressive, it's slightly less so noting that.
Third, many of his stats have rebounded from his poor showing in June to being good again in July. His WHIP is down to 1.1, his batting average against is .206 in July, and his BABIP is down as well. Despite this, his ERA went from 4.41 in June to 5.59 in July. If he has righted is stuff as the stats would indicate, he should be back to racking up the wins.
To note one more thing, in his last game versus the Marlins, he allowed four earned runs in 5.1 innings. He has been lights out on the road all season, and this was his first bad outing outside of Coors Field. His ERA was naturally going to inflate at home, but if he struggles on the road, then it's not going to get better.
He's still in the top three or four pitchers in baseball this year, there's no question about that. But I think we can see that he's fallen from the pedestal that he was placed on. That's not bad necessarily, it was going to happen eventually. Perhaps now we can just watch him pitch instead of pushing him to hit 25 or 30 wins.
That being said, 25 might still happen if the Rockies keep scoring for him. He averages 5.77 runs in support of his pitching, which is a very good number, definitely above average. If he pitches decently the rest of the year, even if he only pitches as good as he did in June, with those numbers, it is pretty much guaranteed that he'll reach 20 wins.
It doesn't help that Josh Johnson has lowered his ERA to 1.62 and continues to make a case to usurp the lead for the Cy Young Award from Jimenez.
Nonetheless, one can only hope that Jimenez is starting to turn the corner and revert to his April and May self, as it would make for an amazing story throughout the rest of the season.
